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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029

by Jul 16, 2020

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 main projections:

  • The relative importance of food, feed and biofuel use will not change significantly, as no major structural shifts in demand for agricultural commodities are expected.
  • Besides the #Covid_19 pandemic, the world agricultural markets face a range of uncertainties: (i) on the supply side, the spread of diseases/pest such as African Swine Fever or locust invasions, growing resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulatory responses to new plant breeding techniques, and responses to extreme climatic events; (ii) on the demand side, evolving diets, reflecting perceptions with respect to health and sustainability concerns, and policy responses to trends in obesity; (iii) the digital innovation in agro-food supply chains will have important impacts on both supply and demand; and (iv) future trade agreements and changing trade relations between several important players will also impact agricultural markets.
  • Per-capita food expenditure expands globally, but falls as a share of income, most significantly in middle income countries. Average per capita food availability is projected to reach about 3 000 kcal and 85 g of protein per day by 2029, fats and staples accounting for about 60% of the additional calories. By far the highest growth rate is projected for fats at 9% over the coming decade. Due to the ongoing transition in global diets towards higher consumption of animal products, fats and other foods, the share of staples in the food basket is projected to decline by 2029 for all income groups.
  • The Outlook assumes a further intensification of livestock and fish production, combined with ongoing feed efficiency gains these result in a globally fixed relationship between animal food production and the necessary energy and protein feed over the coming decade. Global livestock production is expected to expand by 14% supported by low feed prices and stable product prices ensuring remunerative profit margins to producers. Poultry remains the fastest growing meat accounting for about half of the projected increase in total meat output.
  • Biofuel use of primary agricultural commodities is not expected to increase significantly beyond current levels, mainly due to their declining role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the declining use of low-blended gasoline-type transportation fuel in two of the main ethanol markets, the United States and the European Union.
  • About 85% of global crop output growth over the next ten years is attributed to yield improvements resulting from more intensive input use, investments in production technology and better cultivation practices.
  • #trade is going to be increasingly important for #foodsecurity in resource-constrained countries, where imports account for a large share of their total calorie and protein consumption.